The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced immediate geopolitical tensions, and markets increasingly expect a final agreement to be reached. Yet the shock has not disappeared. Energy flows, logistics networks and corporate cost structures continue to feel the effects of months of disruption, while inventories, emergency measures and alternative supply routes cannot support the system indefinitely.

The shock has been absorbed but the buffers are being depleted

The global economy has avoided a major macroeconomic crisis so far thanks to a combination of exceptional measures. The International Energy Agency coordinated a record release of 426 million barrels from emergency stocks, while importers drew down inventories, reduced refinery runs and sourced additional supply elsewhere. At the same time, bypass infrastructure allowed 3.5–5.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude exports to avoid Hormuz. These mechanisms helped offset a disruption that removed 14.4 mb/d of Gulf production at its peak. However, these buffers are finite: inventories must be rebuilt and emergency measures cannot replace normal trade flows indefinitely.

Energy volume loss (in million barrels oil equivalent per day)

The biggest risks are now hidden in margins, cash flows and business models

The corporate impact is increasingly indirect. Europe’s exposure is less about crude availability and more about LNG competition, freight costs, industrial inputs and margin pressure. Companies face higher supplier costs, longer lead times, increased insurance premiums and working-capital absorption. Even in a recovery scenario, LNG markets are likely to remain constrained, with 12.8 million tonnes per annum of damaged Qatari liquefaction capacity requiring an estimated 3-to-5-year repair period. For many businesses, the challenge is therefore not securing supply, but understanding how energy-market volatility translates into profitability, liquidity and strategic positioning.

Building resilience requires action before full clarity returns

Markets currently expect a final agreement and a gradual recovery in energy flows through 2027. However, management teams must demonstrate to lenders, shareholders and buyers which impacts are temporary, which are structural and which are already mitigated. Quantifying exposure across energy, suppliers, freight, insurance and working capital, and translating the evolving outlook into business plans and scenario-weighted valuations, has become a key element of corporate resilience.

How Eight Advisory can help

Eight Advisory supports corporates and investors in translating geopolitical disruption into actionable business decisions. From business model resilience and scenario planning to valuation, transaction support and cash-flow analysis, our teams help organisations quantify exposure, assess downside risks and capture value opportunities as markets evolve.

Download the full point of view to learn more (DACH version available here).